Page 13 - ITAtube Journal 3 2024

ous political risks within the middle east oil
and gas producing countries. The oil price
volatility anyhow ticks higher with more
geopolitical risks simmering.
The USA to soften the inflation and to
sacrifice the crude oil demand enlarged its
crude oil production almost linear from 12
Mio. Bbl./day in August 2022 to
13,3 Mio. Bbl./day in February 2024 (+
11%) by increasing the number of drilling
rigs and their productivity (Figure 10).
Since then, the US production remains on
such high level.
The number of US drilling rigs was enlarged
to about 800 by December 2022 (Figure 11).
In 2023 due to improved productivity and
declining oil prices, the number of rigs was
reduced until December 2024 to 589 rigs.
Of these 589 rigs, 482 are dedicated for the
extraction of oil and 102 for gas. The US oil
exports have reached a remarkable new
all-time high with about 5,5 million Bbl./day
representing about 41,6% of the total crude
oil production.
Efforts to reduce dependence on fossil
energy sources can hardly be successful
in the short term and can only contribute
in medium term. For our pipe industry,
however, this means that crude oil prices
can be expected for 2025 at around 70-80
USD/Bbl. unless the geopolitical situation
does explode.
The need to secure the world energy
supply will keep the demand for tubular
products high. Another driving factor is
the record high global LNG production.
Katar, USA and Australia have record
high LNG production. Consequently, the
demand for OCTG products remain high.
The LNG supplies ease the energy supply
crisis especially in Europe to compensate
the stopped Russian pipeline gas supplies,
unfortunately at much higher cost.
Pipeline projects will continue despite the
current delays (figure 12). Geopolitical
changes in the distribution of oil and gas
require new distribution networks.
Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage
(CCUS) is another upcoming interesting
market for higher alloyed tubes (figure 13).
The storage of carbon requires extensive
ITAtube Journal December 2024
Market information
Figure 11: US Total Rig Count 5 years up to 6th of December 2024
Source: OilPrice.com
Figure 12: The Global Demand for Line pipe Market 2019-2027 (million tons)
Source: Rystad Energy
Figure 13: CCUS – Alternative Geological Options
Source: @CO2CRC
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