Page 14 - ITAtube Journal 2 2024

Market information
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automotive industry deteriorates, a modest return to growth in new car sales of private and commercial vehicles is expected over the next two years. ABI Research forecasts global vehicle sales growth of 3.6% in 2024. Furthermore, car manufacturers can expect sales to exceed the 92 million units’ level again in 2024 (Figure 12).
In terms of regional growth in vehicle sales, according to IHS, the recovery process in the volume markets of Europe and North America will take longer. Future growth will primarily take place in Asia, particularly in China. However, China could increasingly become a sales problem for the western automotive industry due to the American decoupling tendencies and the strengthening local car industry in China.
However, the tendency to further reduce the weight of vehicles supports the trend towards the use of tubular products. The transition to electromobility BEV (Battery Equipped Vehicles) and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles) can also support the use of tubular components, as the additional weight of the batteries must
be compensated as far as possible. The automotive industry offers many attrac- tive applications for tubular products. The decrease of cars with combustion engines (ICE - Internal Combustion Vehicles), as indicated in figure 12 may be questioned, since many recent forecasts view the prospects of ICE vehicles more positive. Anyhow stainless-steel tubes for exhaust systems will most likely face a negative CAGR of about -5,4%/year.
Overall, the automotive industry faces
the challenge of the transition to electro- mobility and the question how they can continue to serve markets in which elec- tromobility cannot be introduced due to restrictions in the availability of electrical energy. Car manufacturers must there- fore pursue all drive technologies to avoid losing major market potential. Environ- mentally friendly combustion technologies will continue to have their place. Political institutions, such as those in Europe, on the other hand, are setting deadlines to ban combustion technologies including
green fuels. Present discussions may be understood that this paradigm may be opened again in favour of combustion engines with green fuel. In this area of conflict, the automotive industry, including its suppliers of tube products, must find suitable business approaches.
The mechanical engineering market segment, which accounts for around 9%
of global pipe production, has developed well in recent years in line with global GDP. During the financial- and corona crisis, the market was characterized by higher vola- tility with sharp slumps and rapid recover- ies. In 2023, the current further recovery was slowed down by geopolitical circum- stances. Asia, and China in particular, although increasingly self-sufficient, are still the largest markets for the purchase of machinery. It remains remarkable that the Chinese industry has taken the global lead in machine sales since the coronavi- rus crisis.
The USA’s intentions for decoupling
must be taken into account, which could become a game changer for the global mechanical engineering industry. The USA and Europe also remain important sales regions. This market segment certainly offers the greatest variety of tubular prod- ucts. Cylinder-, precision-, ball bearing- and turned part tubes, to name just a few prominent representatives of this market segment, certainly offer interesting pros- pects for tube and pipe manufacturers.
The construction market, which accounts for around 5% of the global pipe market, represents another opportunity for pipe manufacturers with growth potential.
Despite the challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, the global construction industry continued to achieve moderate growth momentum in 2024
with a real increase in production of 1%. This is largely thanks to China’s surpris- ingly strong performance, despite the prolonged real estate crisis there, which has significantly impacted construction investment. Construction activity in the US and Northeast Asia also picked up in the first half of 2024, driving growth in global construction output. In view of the persis- tently high interest rates, new investments
ITAtube Journal July 2024