Page 13 - ITAtube Journal 2 2024

The USA to soften the inflation and to sacrifice the crude oil demand enlarged its crude oil production almost linear from 12 Mio. Bbl./day in September 2023 to
Market information
13,3 Mio. Bbl./day in February 2024 (+ 11%) by increasing the number of drilling rigs and their productivity (Figure 10). Since then, the US production remains on such high level.
upcoming elections in France and Iran with concern.
The USA to soften the inflation and to sacrifice the crude oil demand enlarged its crude oil production almost linear from 12 Mio. Bbl./day in September 2023 to
13,3 Mio. Bbl./day in February 2024 (+ 11%) by increasing the number of drilling rigs and their productivity (Figure 10). Since then, the US production remains on such high level.
The number of US drilling rigs was enlarged to about 800 by December 2022 (Figure 11). In 2023 due to improved productivity and declining oil prices, the number of rigs was reduced until June 2024 to 588 rigs. Of these 588 rigs, 485 are dedicated for the extraction of oil and 98 for gas. The US oil exports have reached a remarkable new all-time high with about 5,5 million Bbl./day representing about 41,6% of the total crude oil production.
Efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels can hardly be successful in the short term and can only contribute medium term. For our pipe industry, however,
this means that crude oil prices can be expected this year at around 80-90 USD/ Bbl. The need to secure the world energy supply will keep the demand for tubular products high. Another driving factor is the record high global LNG production. Katar, USA and Australia have record high LNG production. Consequently, the demand
for OCTG products remain high. The LNG supplies ease the energy crisis especially in Europe to compensate the stopped Russian pipeline gas supplies. Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) is another upcoming interesting market for higher alloyed tubes. Hydrogen pipelines will create further additional markets for steel tubes.
The automotive market, accounts for around 15% of the global tube and pipe market. With most car manufacturers and many of their suppliers now reporting that overall car sales figures are slowly rising again - with global deliveries expected to reach 92 million units by the end of the year 2024.
As the macroeconomic outlook for the
ITAtube Journal July 2024
FFigigurere1100: :UUSSCCruruddeeOOil iPl rPordoudcutioctniosninscien2ce02020 Source: OilPrice.com
Source: OilPrice.com
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its’ level again in 2024 (Figure 12).
terms of regional growth in vehicle sales, according to IHS, the recovery process i e volume markets of Europe and North America will take longer. Future growth will
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primarily take place in Asia, particularly in China. However, China could increasingly
Figure 11: US Total Rig Count 5 years up to 24th of June 2024
Figure 11: US Total Rig Count 5 years up to 24th of June 2024
become a sales problem for the western automotive industry due to the American
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decoupling tendencies and the strengthening local car industry in China.
The number of US drilling rigs was enlarged to about 800 by December 2022 (F
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11). In 2023 due to improved productivity and declining oil prices, the number of was reduced until June 2024 to 588 rigs. Of these 588 rigs, 485 are dedicated f extraction of oil and 98 for gas. The US oil exports have reached a remarkable all-time high with about 5,5 million Bbl./day representing about 41,6% of the tot crude oil production.
Efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels can hardly be successful in the sho term and can only contribute medium term. For our pipe industry, however, this means that crude oil prices can be expected this year at around 80-90 USD/Bbl need to secure the world energy supply will keep the demand for tubular produc high. Another driving factor is the record high global LNG production. Katar, US Australia have record high LNG production. Consequently, the demand for OCT products remain high. The LNG supplies ease the energy crisis especially in Eu to compensate the stopped Russian pipeline gas supplies. Carbon Capture Utili and Storage (CCUS) is another upcoming interesting market for higher alloyed t Hydrogen pipelines will create further additional markets for steel tubes.
e s
e
e
nd
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s. The automotive market, accounts for around 15% of the global tube and pipe market.
Figure 12: Global vehicle sales volume 2019-2033 (million units)
Figure 12: Global vehicle sales volume 2019-2033 (million units)
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Source: IHS-Market, SMR, OEM statements
car sales figures are slowly rising again - with global deliveries expected to reach 92
Hmowilleiovenr,utnhietstebnydethnceyetondfurothfethr eredyuecaert2h0e2w4e.ight of vehicles supports the trend towards
thAesutsheeomf taubcurolaercporondoumctisc. TohuetlotroanksfiotiornthtoeealeucttorommootbivileityinBdEuVst(rByatdtertyeEriqouraiptpeesd, Vaemhiocldees)st
and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles) can also support the use of tubular components, return to growth in new car sales of private and commercial vehicles is expected over
as the additional weight of the batteries must be compensated as far as possible. The
the next two years. ABI Research forecasts global vehicle sales growth of 3.6% in
automotive industry offers many attractive applications for tubular products. The decrease of 2024. Furthermore, car manufacturers can expect sales to exceed the 92 million
cars with combustion engines (ICE - Internal Combustion Vehicles), as indicated in figure 12
may be questioned, since many recent forecasts view the prospects of ICE vehicles more 10
positive. Anyhow stainless-steel tubes for exhaust systems will most likely face a negative CAGR of about -5,4%/year.
Overall, the automotive industry faces the challenge of the transition to electromobility and
the question how they can continue to serve markets in which electromobility cannot be
introduced due to restrictions in the availability of electrical energy. Car manufacturers must
a
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therefore pursue all drive technologies to avoid losing major market potential.