Page 14 - ITAtube Journal 2 2022

Market information
ous inflation-adjusted record price was 147 USD/Bbl. in 2008.
“The latest conflict in the Middle East follows the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s - Russia’s war with Ukraine,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank. “This had a disruptive impact on the global economy that contin- ues today.
“Policy makers will need to be vigilant. If the conflict escalates, the global economy will face a double energy shock for the first
time in decades - not only from the war in Ukraine, but also from the war in Middle East.”
In its assessment, the bank explained that the war between Israel and Hamas has so far had little impact on prices. Oil prices have risen only by around 6 per cent.
However, three alternative paths for oil prices have also been outlined:
A “minor disruption” scenario in which global oil supply would be reduced by 500,000 to 2 million Bbl./day, roughly equiv- alent to the decline during the Libyan civil war in 2011. The oil price would rise to a range of 93 to 102 USD/Bbl.
A “medium disruption” scenario, roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003, in which global oil supply would be reduced by 3 to 5 million Bbl./day. Oil prices would initially rise by 21% to 35% to between 109 and $121 USD/Bbl.
The scenario of a “major disruption” - com- parable to the measures taken during the 1973 Yom Kippur War - in which the global oil supply would shrink by 6 to 8 million Bbl./day, leading to a price increase of 56 % to 75 % to 140 to 157 USD/Bbl.
Figure 16: US Total Rig Count 5 years up to November 2023 Source: OilPrice.com
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Figure 17: Positive outlook for CCUS projects, tightening tube supply in high alloy tubulars
Source: Rystad Energy.com
ITAtube Journal December 2023